Longshot / Favorite Price Gap
Realized win rate of longshot trades minus the longshot-band midpoint.
As of 2026-04-20 (week 2026-W17), the longshot gap is -0.022, with a 52-week rolling z-score of +0.08. Longshot win rate: 2.77%. Longshot fraction: 50.5%.
Weekly history
Positive: longshots are underpriced (realized wins exceed the band midpoint). Negative: the classical favorite-longshot bias.
Methodology
Trades at prices below 10% are grouped into the longshot band. Each week we compute the realized win rate among those trades and subtract the band midpoint (5%). The resulting gap is the weekly underpricing signal. In most weeks, the gap is small and near zero; large positive gaps indicate that longshot buyers are systematically winning more than their implied probability, a rare but persistent deviation from mean pricing efficiency.
The favorite-side analog (top price bin) requires a separate weekly extraction and is planned for a future release.
Data
price_gap_history.csv · price_gap_latest.json · price_gap_timeseries.json