DV-PMI · Longshot pricing

Longshot / Favorite Price Gap

Updated 2026-06-15

As of 2026-06-15 (week 2026-W25), the longshot gap is +0.013 with a 52-week rolling z-score of +2.22. Trades at prices below 10% (the longshot band) won at 6.30%; the band midpoint is 5%. Positive gaps mean longshots are underpriced; negative gaps are the classical favorite-longshot bias.

Positive: longshots are underpriced (realized wins exceed the band midpoint). Negative: the classical favorite-longshot bias.

Methodology

Trades at prices below 10% are grouped into the longshot band. Each week we compute the realized win rate among those trades and subtract the band midpoint (5%). The resulting gap is the weekly underpricing signal. In most weeks, the gap is small and near zero; large positive gaps indicate that longshot buyers are systematically winning more than their implied probability, a rare but persistent deviation from mean pricing efficiency.

The favorite-side analog (top price bin) requires a separate weekly extraction and is planned for a future release.

Data

price_gap_history.csv · price_gap_latest.json · price_gap_timeseries.json

Cite this index

@misc{dellavedova2026pricegap,
  title        = {Longshot / Favorite Price Gap},
  author       = {Della Vedova, Joshua},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://jdellavedova.com/price-gap}
}