Joshua Della Vedova

DV-PMI · Briefings

The week’s biggest prediction markets, with microstructure context.

Updated week of 2026-W36

Each briefing pairs a high-volume Polymarket contract with the structural facts our weekly indices reveal about it: who’s trading it, how it sits on the calibration curve, and whether it falls in a category historically associated with informed trading. How these are constructed →

Polymarket volume
$470M
Trades this week
17.0M
Algorithmic share
66%
Calibration α
0.664
Top 30 Polymarket markets, week of 2026-W36 Rectangle area = weekly USD volume. Color = market category. Hover for full market name.
Top Polymarket markets by weekly volume Treemap of the top 30 markets this week. Cell area is proportional to USD volume; cell color encodes market category. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Volume: $892K · Trades: 2,963 Implied: 14% YES Algorithmic share: 66% Category: Geopolitics Will the U.S. invadeIran before 2027? 14% YES $892K vol Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Volume: $550K · Trades: 1,706 Implied: 17% YES Algorithmic share: 58% Category: Other Clarity Act signed intolaw in 2026? 17% YES $550K vol Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Volume: $486K · Trades: 4,045 Implied: 56% YES Algorithmic share: 71% Category: Other Will Carlos Alcaraz winthe 2026 Men's US Open? 56% YES $486K vol Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Volume: $453K · Trades: 2,834 Implied: 2% YES Algorithmic share: 46% Category: Politics Will Renan Santos winthe 2026 Brazilianpresidential election? 2% YES $453K vol Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Volume: $441K · Trades: 893 Implied: 4% YES Algorithmic share: 48% Category: Geopolitics Will China invade Taiwanby end of 2026? 4% YES $441K vol Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Volume: $390K · Trades: 2,430 Implied: 69% YES Algorithmic share: 57% Category: Geopolitics Will United Russia(ER) gain the mostseats in the nextRussian parliamentary… 69% YES $390K vol Fed rate hike in 2026? Volume: $254K · Trades: 1,471 Implied: 71% YES Algorithmic share: 58% Category: Macro Fed rate hikein 2026? 71% YES $254K vol Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Volume: $228K · Trades: 805 Implied: 7% YES Algorithmic share: 69% Category: Other Will theIranianregime fall… 7% YES $228K vol Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Volume: $216K · Trades: 2,087 Implied: 40% YES Algorithmic share: 61% Category: Politics Will FlávioBolsonarowin the 2026… 40% YES $216K vol Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Volume: $186K · Trades: 491 Implied: 10% YES Algorithmic share: 66% Category: Crypto Will Bitcoindip to $45,000by December… 10% YES $186K vol Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Volume: $183K · Trades: 207 Implied: 6% YES Algorithmic share: 61% Category: Crypto Will Bitcoindip to $35,000by December… 6% YES $183K vol Trump out as President before 2027? Volume: $175K · Trades: 483 Implied: 6% YES Algorithmic share: 50% Category: Politics Trump out asPresidentbefore 2027? 6% YES $175K vol Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Volume: $174K · Trades: 1,213 Implied: 57% YES Algorithmic share: 60% Category: Politics Will LuizInácio Lulada Silva win… 57% YES $174K vol Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Volume: $167K · Trades: 1,901 Implied: 23% YES Algorithmic share: 68% Category: Other WillAlexanderZverev win… 23% YES $167K vol Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Volume: $138K · Trades: 759 Implied: 4% YES Algorithmic share: 41% Category: Other Will the USconfirm thataliens exist… 4% YES $138K vol Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Volume: $130K · Trades: 1,485 Implied: 93% YES Algorithmic share: 61% Category: Macro Will no Fedrate cutshappen in… 93% YES $130K vol Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Volume: $119K · Trades: 1,975 Implied: 0% YES Algorithmic share: 76% Category: Other Will DaniilMedvedevwin the… 0% YES $119K vol Xi Jinping out before 2027? Volume: $115K · Trades: 841 Implied: 4% YES Algorithmic share: 51% Category: Other Xi Jinpingout before2027? 4% YES $115K vol Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Volume: $111K · Trades: 1,610 Implied: 25% YES Algorithmic share: 62% Category: Politics Will NewPeople(NL) gain… 25% YES $111K vol Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Volume: $105K · Trades: 689 Implied: 25% YES Algorithmic share: 42% Category: Politics Will JDVance winthe 2028… 25% YES $105K vol 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Volume: $95K · Trades: 606 Implied: 12% YES Algorithmic share: 55% Category: Politics 2026Balance of… 12% YES $95K vol Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Volume: $90K · Trades: 440 Implied: 14% YES Algorithmic share: 63% Category: Politics FriedrichMerz out asChancellor… 14% YES $90K vol Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Volume: $88K · Trades: 1,054 Implied: 85% YES Algorithmic share: 73% Category: Sports Will KimiAntonellibe the… 85% YES $88K vol Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Volume: $85K · Trades: 383 Implied: 25% YES Algorithmic share: 67% Category: Crypto WillBitcoinreach… 25% YES $85K vol Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Volume: $82K · Trades: 1,139 Implied: 5% YES Algorithmic share: 60% Category: Macro Will 1 Fedrate cuthappen in… 5% YES $82K vol Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Volume: $81K · Trades: 1,457 Implied: 78% YES Algorithmic share: 66% Category: Politics WillMagdalenaAndersson… 78% YES $81K vol Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Volume: $79K · Trades: 892 Implied: 100% YES Algorithmic share: 69% Category: Other Will GPT-6bereleased… 100% YES $79K vol Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Volume: $77K · Trades: 732 Implied: 30% YES Algorithmic share: 53% Category: Geopolitics WillBenjaminNetanyahu… 30% YES $77K vol Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? Volume: $74K · Trades: 1,850 Implied: 9% YES Algorithmic share: 76% Category: Other Will BenSheltonwin the… 9% YES $74K vol Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Volume: $71K · Trades: 1,194 Implied: 0% YES Algorithmic share: 70% Category: Other WillTaylorFritz win… 0% YES $71K vol
Color = category
Geopolitics Other Politics Macro / Finance Crypto Sports

6 briefings this week

Top 6 markets by USD volume from the week of 2026-W36, annotated with per-market microstructure from the DV-PMI weekly indices.

Geopolitics #1 by weekly volume

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)

  • Implied probability 14% YES ▼ -1pp 7d
  • Weekly volume $892K
  • Trades 2,963
  • 24h volume (Gamma) $41K
  • Time to resolution 116 days (2027-01-01)
  • Top of book (YES) Bid 0.14 ($4,150) / Ask 0.15 ($7,778)
  • Spread 1.0¢ (690 bps)
  • Depth within ±5% of mid $4,150 bid / $7,778 ask
  • Algorithmic share (this market) 66% (in line with the 66% Polymarket-wide baseline)
  • Flagged wallets active 5 of 10,485
  • Execution gap (retail vs bots) +0.56¢ per share
Other #2 by weekly volume

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)

  • Implied probability 16% YES ▲ +4pp 7d
  • Weekly volume $550K
  • Trades 1,706
  • 24h volume (Gamma) $103K
  • Time to resolution 116 days (2027-01-01)
  • Top of book (YES) Bid 0.16 ($5,598) / Ask 0.17 ($5,843)
  • Spread 1.0¢ (606 bps)
  • Depth within ±5% of mid $5,598 bid / $5,843 ask
  • Algorithmic share (this market) 58% (vs 66% Polymarket-wide)
  • Flagged wallets active 4 of 10,485
  • Execution gap (retail vs bots) -0.17¢ per share
Other #3 by weekly volume

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)

  • Implied probability 56% YES ▲ +29pp 7d
  • Weekly volume $486K
  • Trades 4,045
  • 24h volume (Gamma) $217K
  • Time to resolution 6 days (2026-09-13)
  • Top of book (YES) Bid 0.56 ($5,678) / Ask 0.57 ($28,470)
  • Spread 1.0¢ (177 bps)
  • Depth within ±5% of mid $36,345 bid / $44,273 ask
  • Algorithmic share (this market) 71% (vs 66% Polymarket-wide)
  • Flagged wallets active 9 of 10,485
  • Execution gap (retail vs bots) +1.18¢ per share
Politics #4 by weekly volume

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)

  • Implied probability 2% YES • -0pp 7d
  • Weekly volume $453K
  • Trades 2,834
  • 24h volume (Gamma) $60K
  • Time to resolution 27 days (2026-10-04)
  • Top of book (YES) Bid 0.01 ($11) / Ask 0.02 ($55)
  • Spread 0.1¢ (645 bps)
  • Depth within ±5% of mid $11 bid / $55 ask
  • Algorithmic share (this market) 46% (vs 66% Polymarket-wide)
  • Flagged wallets active 1 of 10,485
  • Execution gap (retail vs bots) -0.10¢ per share
Geopolitics #5 by weekly volume

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)

  • Implied probability 4% YES • +0pp 7d
  • Weekly volume $441K
  • Trades 893
  • 24h volume (Gamma) $26K
  • Time to resolution 115 days (2026-12-31)
  • Top of book (YES) Bid 0.04 ($243) / Ask 0.04 ($269)
  • Spread 0.1¢ (267 bps)
  • Depth within ±5% of mid $569 bid / $456 ask
  • Algorithmic share (this market) 48% (vs 66% Polymarket-wide)
  • Flagged wallets active 10 of 10,485
  • Execution gap (retail vs bots) +0.01¢ per share
Geopolitics #6 by weekly volume

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)

  • Implied probability 69% YES ▲ +1pp 7d
  • Weekly volume $390K
  • Trades 2,430
  • 24h volume (Gamma) $62K
  • Time to resolution 23 days (2026-09-30)
  • Top of book (YES) Bid 0.68 ($9,552) / Ask 0.70 ($3,672)
  • Spread 2.0¢ (290 bps)
  • Depth within ±5% of mid $47,619 bid / $36,230 ask
  • Algorithmic share (this market) 57% (vs 66% Polymarket-wide)
  • Flagged wallets active 4 of 10,485
  • Execution gap (retail vs bots) +0.64¢ per share

How to use these briefings

Per-market microstructure annotations come from aggregate_market_microstructure.py (per-market bot share, flagged-wallet activity, average entry price by wallet type). News-angle text is editorial. Briefings are a dashboard product, not investment advice.

Joshua Della Vedova · Knauss School of Business, University of San Diego Updated weekly · 2026-W36
jdellavedova@sandiego.edu · LinkedIn · ORCID · SSRN · Google Scholar · Press · Consulting · About
Cite this dataset Della Vedova, J. (2026). Della Vedova Prediction Market Indices (DV-PMI). https://jdellavedova.com