The week’s biggest prediction markets, with microstructure context.
Updated week of 2026-W29
Each briefing pairs a high-volume Polymarket contract with the structural facts our weekly indices reveal about it: who’s trading it, how it sits on the calibration curve, and whether it falls in a category historically associated with informed trading. How these are constructed →
Polymarket volume
$499M
Trades this week
21.5M
Algorithmic share
78%
Calibration α
0.664
Top 30 Polymarket markets, week of 2026-W29
Rectangle area = weekly USD volume. Color = market category. Hover for full market name.
Color = category
Sports Geopolitics Other Macro / Finance Politics Crypto
6 briefings this week
Top 6 markets by USD volume from the week of 2026-W29, annotated with per-market microstructure from the DV-PMI weekly indices.
Geopolitics#5 by weekly volume
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Implied probability22% YES ▲ +6pp 7d
Weekly volume$2.3M
Trades7,612
24h volume (Gamma)$206K
Time to resolution157 days (2026-12-31)
Top of book (YES)Bid 0.22 ($140) / Ask 0.23 ($11)
Spread1.0¢ (444 bps)
Depth within ±5% of mid$140 bid / $11 ask
Algorithmic share (this market)75% (in line with the 78% Polymarket-wide baseline)
Flagged wallets active9 of 10,485
Execution gap (retail vs bots)-0.61¢ per share
Sports#6 by weekly volume
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Implied probability3% YES
Weekly volume$962K
Trades6,104
24h volume (Gamma)$5K
Time to resolution132 days (2026-12-06)
Top of book (YES)Bid 0.03 ($2) / Ask 0.03 ($8)
Spread0.2¢ (667 bps)
Depth within ±5% of mid$2 bid / $8 ask
Algorithmic share (this market)76% (in line with the 78% Polymarket-wide baseline)
Flagged wallets active3 of 10,485
Execution gap (retail vs bots)+0.73¢ per share
Sports#7 by weekly volume
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Implied probability2% YES
Weekly volume$908K
Trades5,999
24h volume (Gamma)$2K
Time to resolution132 days (2026-12-06)
Top of book (YES)Bid 0.02 ($7) / Ask 0.02 ($23)
Spread0.1¢ (513 bps)
Depth within ±5% of mid$7 bid / $23 ask
Algorithmic share (this market)76% (in line with the 78% Polymarket-wide baseline)
Flagged wallets active4 of 10,485
Execution gap (retail vs bots)+0.83¢ per share
Other#8 by weekly volume
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Implied probability8% YES ▼ -4pp 7d
Weekly volume$709K
Trades5,163
24h volume (Gamma)$19K
Time to resolution157 days (2026-12-31)
Top of book (YES)Bid 0.08 ($7,945) / Ask 0.09 ($3,236)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
(EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Implied probability3% YES
Weekly volume$389K
Trades3,366
24h volume (Gamma)$2K
Time to resolution132 days (2026-12-06)
Top of book (YES)Bid 0.03 ($51) / Ask 0.03 ($50)
Spread0.1¢ (339 bps)
Depth within ±5% of mid$51 bid / $50 ask
Algorithmic share (this market)78% (in line with the 78% Polymarket-wide baseline)
Flagged wallets active3 of 10,485
Execution gap (retail vs bots)+0.16¢ per share
How to use these briefings
Journalists: every annotation cites a published index. Quote the number, link to the methodology.
Researchers: use the briefings as entry points to the underlying weekly data files in Data Downloads.
Regulators & counsel: the “insider-trading hotspot” tag flags markets in MNPI categories (Vote, Action) where flag rates run materially above baseline.
Per-market microstructure annotations come from aggregate_market_microstructure.py (per-market bot share, flagged-wallet activity, average entry price by wallet type). News-angle text is editorial. Briefings are a dashboard product, not investment advice.
Joshua Della Vedova · Knauss School of Business, University of San Diego
Updated weekly · 2026-W30