DV-PMI · Briefings
The week’s biggest prediction markets, with microstructure context. Updated week of 2026-W25
Each briefing pairs a high-volume Polymarket contract with the structural facts our weekly indices reveal about it: who’s trading it, how it sits on the calibration curve, and whether it falls in a category historically associated with informed trading. How these are constructed →
Top 30 Polymarket markets, week of 2026-W25
Rectangle area = weekly USD volume. Color = market category. Hover for full market name.
Top Polymarket markets by weekly volume Treemap of the top 30 markets this week. Cell area is proportional to USD volume; cell color encodes market category. Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Volume: $2.7M · Trades: 10,347
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 44%
Category: Politics Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Volume: $2.5M · Trades: 6,325
Implied: 100% YES
Algorithmic share: 52%
Category: Crypto MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? 100% YES
$2.5M vol Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Volume: $2.2M · Trades: 23,214
Implied: 2% YES
Algorithmic share: 46%
Category: Other Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? 2% YES
$2.2M vol Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Volume: $1.7M · Trades: 12,227
Implied: 52% YES
Algorithmic share: 49%
Category: Sports Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? 52% YES
$1.7M vol Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Volume: $1.7M · Trades: 15,960
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 52%
Category: Sports Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Volume: $1.2M · Trades: 5,238
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 57%
Category: Politics Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Volume: $1.1M · Trades: 8,555
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 52%
Category: Politics Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Volume: $939K · Trades: 7,174
Implied: 16% YES
Algorithmic share: 44%
Category: Sports Will France win the 2026 FIFA World… 16% YES
$939K vol Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Volume: $893K · Trades: 4,447
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 56%
Category: Politics Will Abelardo de la Espriella win… Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Volume: $822K · Trades: 11,963
Implied: 99% YES
Algorithmic share: 56%
Category: Macro Will there be no change in Fed interest… 99% YES
$822K vol Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Volume: $733K · Trades: 6,345
Implied: 16% YES
Algorithmic share: 43%
Category: Sports Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World… 16% YES
$733K vol Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Volume: $657K · Trades: 7,388
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 45%
Category: Politics Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win… Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Volume: $649K · Trades: 3,863
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 46%
Category: Business Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the… US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Volume: $619K · Trades: 11,103
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 32%
Category: Geopolitics US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Volume: $584K · Trades: 6,349
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 55%
Category: Politics Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026… Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Volume: $580K · Trades: 6,119
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 31%
Category: Sports Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Volume: $577K · Trades: 4,228
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 53%
Category: Politics Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026… Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Volume: $493K · Trades: 3,831
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 43%
Category: Sports Will England win the… Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Volume: $466K · Trades: 4,406
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 44%
Category: Sports Will Argentina win the… Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Volume: $457K · Trades: 2,683
Implied: 17% YES
Algorithmic share: 55%
Category: Geopolitics Will the U.S. invade… 17% YES
$457K vol Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Volume: $420K · Trades: 3,648
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 39%
Category: Sports Will Brazil win the 2026… Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Volume: $413K · Trades: 3,488
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 52%
Category: Politics Will Iván Cepeda Castro win… Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Volume: $406K · Trades: 5,837
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 52%
Category: Politics Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win… Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Volume: $385K · Trades: 2,534
Implied: 14% YES
Algorithmic share: 49%
Category: Other Will the US confirm… 14% YES
$385K vol Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Volume: $366K · Trades: 750
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 56%
Category: Sports Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions… Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
Volume: $343K · Trades: 2,269
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 58%
Category: Sports Will the San Antonio Spurs win… Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Volume: $332K · Trades: 4,014
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 46%
Category: Macro Will the Fed decrease interest rates… Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Volume: $328K · Trades: 3,488
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 37%
Category: Sports Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Volume: $323K · Trades: 1,873
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 37%
Category: Crypto Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Volume: $309K · Trades: 9,221
Implied: n/a
Algorithmic share: 33%
Category: Geopolitics Will China invade Taiwan by June 30,… Color = category
6 briefings this week Top 6 markets by USD volume from the week of 2026-W25, annotated with per-market microstructure from the DV-PMI weekly indices.
Politics #1 by weekly volume Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election (EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Weekly volume $2.7M Trades 10,347 Algorithmic share (this market) 44% (vs 61% Polymarket-wide) Flagged wallets active 5 of 6,292 Execution gap (retail vs bots) -3.55¢ per share Other #3 by weekly volume Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? The same diplomatic progress that drove down invasion odds also reduced regime-change probabilities: a negotiated ceasefire stabilizes rather than topples the government. At 4% with 52 days to expiry, the market assigns only tail risk to a June 30 collapse despite Iran's ongoing economic pressure.
Implied probability 2% YES ▼ -1pp 7d Weekly volume $2.2M Trades 23,214 24h volume (Gamma) $289K Time to resolution 24 days (2026-06-30) Top of book (YES) Bid 0.02 ($11) / Ask 0.02 ($16) Spread 0.1¢ (541 bps) Depth within ±5% of mid $11 bid / $16 ask Algorithmic share (this market) 46% (vs 61% Polymarket-wide) Flagged wallets active 7 of 6,292 Execution gap (retail vs bots) +0.12¢ per share Sports #4 by weekly volume Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? (EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Implied probability 52% YES ▲ +27pp 7d Weekly volume $1.7M Trades 12,227 24h volume (Gamma) $383K Time to resolution 25 days (2026-07-01) Top of book (YES) Bid 0.52 ($12,685) / Ask 0.52 ($22,729) Spread 0.1¢ (19 bps) Depth within ±5% of mid $81,444 bid / $93,107 ask Algorithmic share (this market) 49% (vs 61% Polymarket-wide) Flagged wallets active 13 of 6,292 Execution gap (retail vs bots) -0.35¢ per share Sports #5 by weekly volume Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? (EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Weekly volume $1.7M Trades 15,960 Algorithmic share (this market) 52% (vs 61% Polymarket-wide) Flagged wallets active 12 of 6,292 Execution gap (retail vs bots) -0.89¢ per share Politics #6 by weekly volume Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? (EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Weekly volume $1.2M Trades 5,238 Algorithmic share (this market) 57% (vs 61% Polymarket-wide) Flagged wallets active 6 of 6,292 Execution gap (retail vs bots) -2.01¢ per share Politics #7 by weekly volume Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election (EDITORIAL: 1-2 sentences on the news context here)
Weekly volume $1.1M Trades 8,555 Algorithmic share (this market) 52% (vs 61% Polymarket-wide) Flagged wallets active 8 of 6,292 Execution gap (retail vs bots) +3.48¢ per share How to use these briefings Journalists: every annotation cites a published index. Quote the number, link to the methodology.Researchers: use the briefings as entry points to the underlying weekly data files in Data Downloads .Regulators & counsel: the “insider-trading hotspot” tag flags markets in MNPI categories (Vote, Action) where flag rates run materially above baseline. Per-market microstructure annotations come from aggregate_market_microstructure.py (per-market bot share, flagged-wallet activity, average entry price by wallet type). News-angle text is editorial. Briefings are a dashboard product, not investment advice.
Joshua Della Vedova · Knauss School of Business, University of San Diego
Updated weekly · 2026-W25
Cite this dataset
Della Vedova, J. (2026). Della Vedova Prediction Market Indices (DV-PMI). https://jdellavedova.com