Joshua Della Vedova

Algorithmic Share of Participation

Weekly share of Polymarket counterparty events (maker plus taker sides) executed by algorithmic wallets.

As of 2026-04-20, the algorithmic share was 91.0% of weekly counterparty events, with a 52-week rolling z-score of +0.92. 13-week moving average: 92.6%. Active retail share: 7.6%. Sophisticated share: 1.2%. Based on 30,874,218 trades this week (each generates two participations).

Weekly history

52-week rolling statistics

StatisticValue
Mean83.8%
SD7.84%
Min67.1%
Max94.6%

Methodology

Wallets are classified as algorithmic if they placed more than 50 trades on their peak day or more than 1,000 trades over their lifetime. This rule follows Paper 1. Algorithmic share is the fraction of weekly counterparty events attributable to algorithmic wallets. Each on-chain match has a maker (limit order) and a taker (market order); both are counted as separate participations to capture both sides honestly. The remainder is split among active retail (10-1,000 trades), sophisticated (large volume with diversified HHI), casual (2-9 trades), and one-shot (single trade) classes.

Data

bot_share_history.csv · bot_share_latest.json · bot_share_timeseries.json

Cite

@misc{dellavedova2026botshare, title = {Bot Share of Volume}, author = {Della Vedova, Joshua}, year = {2026}, version = {0.1.0}, url = {https://jdellavedova.com/bot-share} }