{
  "index_name": "Matched / Pre-Arranged Orders",
  "short_name": "Matched",
  "as_of": "2026-05-12",
  "snapshot_note": "Wallet pairs that have been counterparties on at least 10 matches across the on-chain panel. Persistent counterparty pairs that trade across many markets over a long time span are the signature of coordinated wash trading or pre-arranged order flow; algorithmic market makers, by contrast, rotate against many distinct counterparties and concentrate their pair-counts on no single wallet. The strict threshold (1000+ shared trades, 30+ shared markets, $100,000+ shared volume) is the headline; loose and medium thresholds are also reported.",
  "methodology": "For each match, compute the unordered pair (LEAST(maker, taker), GREATEST(maker, taker)). Group by pair and count matches, distinct markets, total volume, first/last trade dates. Pairs with fewer than 10 shared trades are dropped before materialization. Self-matched trades (maker = taker) are excluded; those are Tier 1 of the wash-trading framework.",
  "population": {
    "n_persistent_pairs": 8035810,
    "approx_n_wallets_involved": 744376,
    "total_trades_within_persistent_pairs": 465393931,
    "total_volume_within_persistent_pairs": 12037961753.611977,
    "summary_stats": {
      "mean_n_trades": 57.914999359118745,
      "median_n_trades": 19.0,
      "mean_n_markets": 7.2840328479642995,
      "median_n_markets": 0.0,
      "mean_trades_per_market": 6.678228924092198,
      "median_trades_per_market": 2.2857142857142856
    }
  },
  "thresholds": [
    {
      "name": "loose",
      "min_trades": 10,
      "min_markets": 3,
      "min_vol": 1000,
      "n_pairs": 498279,
      "shared_trades": 122839336,
      "shared_volume": 7455104273.739852
    },
    {
      "name": "medium",
      "min_trades": 100,
      "min_markets": 10,
      "min_vol": 10000,
      "n_pairs": 36527,
      "shared_trades": 65790564,
      "shared_volume": 3061789565.9104805
    },
    {
      "name": "strict",
      "min_trades": 1000,
      "min_markets": 30,
      "min_vol": 100000,
      "n_pairs": 2366,
      "shared_trades": 26468314,
      "shared_volume": 978809467.236088
    }
  ],
  "trade_count_distribution": [
    {
      "bucket": "10-24",
      "n_pairs": 4991282,
      "total_volume": 3049304420.4322786
    },
    {
      "bucket": "25-99",
      "n_pairs": 2385799,
      "total_volume": 3458022333.7840576
    },
    {
      "bucket": "100-499",
      "n_pairs": 561885,
      "total_volume": 3002384321.9037
    },
    {
      "bucket": "500-2,499",
      "n_pairs": 83544,
      "total_volume": 1411066244.5614438
    },
    {
      "bucket": "2,500-9,999",
      "n_pairs": 11287,
      "total_volume": 642177836.0727751
    },
    {
      "bucket": "10,000+",
      "n_pairs": 2013,
      "total_volume": 475006596.8576859
    }
  ],
  "top_pair_summary": {
    "median_n_trades": 468.5,
    "median_n_markets": 67.0,
    "median_total_volume": 9794099.388899501,
    "median_span_days": 65.0,
    "max_n_trades": 47136,
    "max_total_volume": 31249134.876179893
  },
  "interpretation_caveats": [
    "Persistent counterparty relationships are necessary but not sufficient for coordinated wash trading. Two algorithmic market makers that compete for liquidity in the same niche markets will appear as a persistent pair without any manipulative intent.",
    "The flag is reported as 'patterns consistent with coordinated bilateral trading,' not 'wash trading.' Per the site's posture rules.",
    "No public page names a specific wallet address. The top-pairs CSV with wallet addresses is available under the methodology page's usage notice.",
    "Tier 3 v1 is a structural test; it does not directly measure offsetting net exposure between pair members. A direction-weighted refinement (Tier 3b) is the natural next iteration."
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-05-12T11:55:36+00:00",
  "source": "J:/Research/10. Prediction/data/blockchain/processed_trades.csv",
  "min_trades_per_pair": 10,
  "wallclock_seconds": 10939
}