{
  "index_name": "Insider Timing Concentration",
  "short_name": "Timing",
  "as_of": "2026-02-28",
  "snapshot_note": "Cumulative snapshot from Paper 2; weekly time series is a future release item.",
  "source_paper": "Della Vedova (2026), 'Detecting Informed Trading in Prediction Markets'",
  "headline": {
    "flagged_mean_hours_to_resolution": 704.1981001237324,
    "flagged_median_hours_to_resolution": 377.5471603219699,
    "nonflagged_mean_hours_to_resolution": 1459.5536068123852,
    "nonflagged_median_hours_to_resolution": 1109.916911125133,
    "flagged_frac_final_72h": 0.0202651942456176,
    "nonflagged_frac_final_72h": 0.0161681112635735,
    "flagged_n_wallets": 6032,
    "nonflagged_n_wallets": 444016,
    "hours_ratio_flagged_to_nonflagged": 0.4824749819649837
  },
  "by_bucket": [
    {
      "dtr_bucket": "0-12h",
      "flagged_ea": 0.030617748485755,
      "flagged_n_trades": 293,
      "nonflagged_ea": -0.4692800965723511,
      "nonflagged_n_trades": 64756
    },
    {
      "dtr_bucket": "12-24h",
      "flagged_ea": 0.1844861653275922,
      "flagged_n_trades": 253,
      "nonflagged_ea": -0.4797404296937133,
      "nonflagged_n_trades": 94831
    },
    {
      "dtr_bucket": "24-72h",
      "flagged_ea": 0.0505207176710053,
      "flagged_n_trades": 8707,
      "nonflagged_ea": -0.3346288383830707,
      "nonflagged_n_trades": 1335198
    },
    {
      "dtr_bucket": "72h-7d",
      "flagged_ea": 0.0755536826968649,
      "flagged_n_trades": 179189,
      "nonflagged_ea": -0.2802458587245524,
      "nonflagged_n_trades": 27084048
    },
    {
      "dtr_bucket": "7d-30d",
      "flagged_ea": 0.1920894923533027,
      "flagged_n_trades": 391631,
      "nonflagged_ea": -0.3550890286911182,
      "nonflagged_n_trades": 58198972
    },
    {
      "dtr_bucket": "30d+",
      "flagged_ea": 0.1475452897713962,
      "flagged_n_trades": 226939,
      "nonflagged_ea": -0.4630238316087262,
      "nonflagged_n_trades": 40914873
    }
  ],
  "regression_summary": [
    {
      "model": "(1) Significant only",
      "dep_var": "frac_final_24h",
      "n": 404839,
      "beta_significant": -0.0002993358423177,
      "se_significant": 0.0005889365724967,
      "t_significant": -0.508264992015498,
      "R2": 9.513573462349713e-07
    },
    {
      "model": "(2) + Controls",
      "dep_var": "frac_final_24h",
      "n": 404839,
      "beta_significant": -0.0004009862239186,
      "se_significant": 0.0005895914095543,
      "t_significant": -0.6801086607108241,
      "R2": 0.0004818387580027
    },
    {
      "model": "(3) frac_12h + Controls",
      "dep_var": "frac_final_12h",
      "n": 404839,
      "beta_significant": -0.0003107709226282,
      "se_significant": 0.0003453199242353,
      "t_significant": -0.8999507436948544,
      "R2": 0.0003650648489343
    }
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-05-11T21:07:27+00:00",
  "sources": [
    "G:\\My Drive\\1. Research\\1. Polymarket\\2. Insider\\output\\stage21_timing_by_significance.csv",
    "G:\\My Drive\\1. Research\\1. Polymarket\\2. Insider\\output\\stage21_ea_by_timing_bucket.csv",
    "G:\\My Drive\\1. Research\\1. Polymarket\\2. Insider\\output\\stage21_timing_regression.csv"
  ]
}