{
  "index_name": "Probability Weighting Index",
  "short_name": "PWI",
  "definition": "Trade-count-weighted non-bot Prelec alpha, weekly",
  "interpretation": "alpha = 1 is rational pricing; alpha below 1 is the classical inverse-S weighting (tails over-weighted); alpha above 1 means tails under-weighted.",
  "as_of": "2026-04-20",
  "value": 0.7222836543873418,
  "ma4w": 0.6259624891820924,
  "ma13w": 0.7051813636779828,
  "ma52w": 0.7950907041737285,
  "z52w": -0.5603396653945738,
  "components": {
    "weighted_mean_cal_error": 0.044786217875824416,
    "weighted_longshot_fraction": 0.5040368433022515
  },
  "n_trades_nonbot_week": 17588,
  "rolling": {
    "mean_52w": 0.7950907041737284,
    "sd_52w": 0.12993377817563223,
    "min_52w": 0.5337872617277855,
    "max_52w": 1.0338284697112667,
    "n_obs_52w": 52
  },
  "n_weeks_history": 160,
  "first_date": "2023-02-27",
  "bot_exclusion_note": "Bot wallets are excluded (trades_per_day > 50 OR n_trades > 1000) so the index reflects human probability weighting only.",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-24T17:14:55+00:00",
  "source": "J:\\Research\\10. Prediction\\data\\blockchain\\paper4\\weekly_alpha_by_type.csv"
}